Description: Following significant diplomatic initiatives in recent weeks, Ukrainian state officials and leading US negotiators have modified the initially proposed 28 – peace plan for ending the war in Ukraine. The plan has also been discussed with the special investment representative from Russia, Kirill Dmitriev during his recent visit to Miami. According to the latest modifications, the plan would consist of 20 binding points with major changes regarding the withdrawal of troops, control of territory and Ukraine’s international ambitions. Russian and Ukrainian troops would equally withdraw inland from the frontline in the so – called fortress belt. The plan also includes the establishment of an economic demilitarized zone across the fortress belt which would be policed by Ukraine and would represent a military buffer zone as well. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine has been provided with solid security guarantees by the US and its NATO allies in case of renewed Russian aggression. Under the 20 – point plan, Ukraine would maintain its military at 800 thousand soldiers which is their estimated present strength while the administration of Zaporizhzhia’s nuclear plant would be jointly managed by the US, Ukraine and Russia. The proposal also includes other provisions, such as joint investment funds, prisoner exchanges, free trade agreements and other commitments that delve into the proposed non – aggression pact which would need to be concluded. Key discrepancies remained, such as Ukraine’s NATO ambitions and the question of territorial control. The Kremlin has confirmed that Dmitriev briefed President Vladimir Putin on the latest developments and Russia would issue an official response within days. Zelenskyy conclusively stated that the proposal if accepted by Russia would need to undergo a referendum in Ukraine.
Impact: The latest iteration of the proposed peace agreement leans towards the establishment of an official bilateral stance between Russia and Ukraine that justifiably favors the defending country. Russia would most probably attempt to maneuver around the latest proposal, accepting certain outlined points while also emphatically opposing others, such as the rejection for the reduction of Ukraine’s armed forces and its reluctance to publicly denounce its ambitions to joint NATO. The question of territorial control also remained unresolved which represents considerable desensitization for the Russian side that claimed it would achieve its ambitions through force. Russia can’t bluntly reject the latest proposal, however, it isn’t expected that it would be positively received by Putin and his administration. The ongoing diplomatic efforts are expected to continue with further negotiations and counter – proposals. The US by outlining the original 28 – point peace plan has pushed the peace initiative forwards and significant developments are expected in the upcoming period, depending on the political preparedness and diplomatic will to end the war in Ukraine by all invested stakeholders.