Description: Violent protests erupted in Bangladesh after the assassination of opposition leader, Sharif Osman Hadi, who launched an independent candidacy campaign for the general election expected to take place in Feb. The political crisis in Bangladesh was further aggravated by the murder of Dipu Chandra Das, who was accused of blasphemy. The Indian was lynched and beaten to death then set on fire by an angry mob of Bangladeshis which prompted protests in New Delhi, India. Bilateral ties have been consistently tested ever since India harbored the former Bangladeshi leader, Sheikh Hasina, who was sentenced to death in absentia due to her activities and involvement against the student protesters in 2024. Both countries have recalled their representatives and restricted visa applications while protesters on both sides have attacked the diplomatic missions in both Dhaka and New Delhi.
Impact: Bangladesh is descending towards irrevocable disorder and instability ahead of the elections which has been caused by the growing anti – Indian sentiment and the surge in popularity of various ethnic and religious fractions within the political landscape which are inciting violence and instability. The situation reflects Bangladesh’s strategic decoupling from India’s dominant influence over the country during Sheikh Hasina’s rule while also experiencing a rapid surge in Islamic extremism. Political and ethnic elements in the country such as the largest Islamic party, Jamaat e Islami, and other elements which are vying for control significantly destabilize the country further incentivizing anti – Indian sentiments and ethnic unity. The assassination of Osman Hadi by suspected perpetrators from the banned Awami League party unraveled the unstable political landscape in the country and the lack of authority by the interim government. The degradation of India’s influence also raises potential risk for further destabilization since bilateral mistrust has escalated in recent years. The overlapping destabilization factors, coupled with the political and civil crisis in Bangladesh would continue to persist in the mid – term significantly undermining the socio – economic status of the country and contributing towards further regional instability.