Description: US Special envoy, Steven Witkoff, has reportedly delivered a renewed peace proposal to his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts. The new deal was discussed last month during Witkoff’s meetings with Russia’s envoy, Kirill Dmitriev in Miami. The proposal outlined many of Russia’s demands to end the war in Ukraine, such as ceding the territory in the Donbas region, substantial downsizing of the Ukrainian armed forces, and the exclusion of long – range missiles from the Ukrainian air force arsenal. Shortly after speculations regarding the new peace initiative were disclosed, Russian forces conducted airstrikes deep into western Ukraine targeting the cities of Ternopil, and the regions of Lviv and Ivano – Frankivsk with more than 470 attack drones and 48 ballistic missiles. More than 27 people were reported to have died in the attacks while numerous others were presumed dead or missing. Russia claimed the strikes were a response to Ukraine’s usage of US – made ATACMS surface to surface ballistic missiles on the city of Voronezh. Both Ukraine and Russia have denounced any knowledge of the new US peace plan as President Zelenskyy was set to meet Turkish President Erdogan to discuss the reignition of peace negotiations.
Impact: The newly introduced peace plan by the US resonates with many demands on the Russian side of things and diminishes Ukraine’s position as well as the position of Europe. The three major points which were comprised of land concessions, severe disarmament and ban on long – range missiles represent part of Ukraine’s red lines in terms of the peace negotiations and are highly likely to be denied outright. The US seems to have failed to identify Russia’s final objectives in the war and is using the peace proposals in order to build a concrete perspective of Russia’s ultimate warfare goals. Ukraine is once again in a precarious position in regions such as Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia where Russian forces are advancing rapidly and capturing key strategic points. The use of ATACMS surface to surface ballistic missiles and the previously reported usage of British Storm Shadow missiles represents significant development and an increase in Ukraine’s offensive capabilities in times when the war transfers towards air domination which in turn enables the potential for significant developments and advances in the ground offensive department. The new proposal represents a diplomatic pivoting on behalf of the US aimed at soliciting a response from Russia in terms of their current position regarding the prospectives of peace.