Description: US President Donald Trump stated that he believed Venezuelan leader, Nicolas Maduro, was ready and willing to engage in negotiations after the Pentagon announced Operation Southern Spear. The US carrier strike group Gerald Ford arrived in the Caribbean, adding approximately 5 thousand soldiers to the currently deployed 7 thousand troops as well as a dozen fighter jets aboard the Gerald Ford. Trump additionally stated that he was willing to directly negotiate with Maduro, regarding the continuation of the US military operations in the Caribbean and Venezuela’s potential actions. The statement arrives after months of tensions and military buildup which subsequently led to 21 military strikes on drug boats which killed more than 80 people. Maduro previously reiterated his calls for peace and stated that Venezuela was ready to defend its sovereignty against any invasion. President Trump in contrast concluded his statement by saying that despite the readiness for negotiations the US was ready to leverage its deployed military resources.
Impact: Trump’s pivoting towards negotiations as a potential resolution to the standoff in the Caribbean with Venezuela arrives after the most significant naval asset in the US arsenal arrived in the Caribbean. Maduro previously reported that his envoys and even himself was included in negotiations with the US, however, President Trump cut those efforts short. Under the current constellation, Maduro would probably offer serious concessions in return for retaining his presidency and remaining in power or agree towards gradual descent from power under the conditions imposed by the US during the potential negotiations in the future. The ultimate goal of the standoff is to decouple Venezuela from its close allegiance with Russia, China and Iran and remain in the US orbit of geopolitical influence. Venezuela’s disengagement from its years long alliances could be problematic, however, faced with considerable pressure from the US, the country would become splintered between maintaining its strategic ties with Russia, China and Iran while in parallel developing closer partnerships with the US on several fronts of cooperation. The outcome of the negotiations would determine the immediate steps on the US side which is calculating between all sorts of covert and military activities in Venezuela.