Description: Indian police and investigative authorities have announced that after several days of intense investigative work, Dr. Umar Nabi was discovered as the main perpetrator of the bombing attack in the Red Fort, New Delhi last week. Nabi was a doctor in the Indian administered Kashmir province and had alleged ties to the Jaish e Mohammed (JeM) terrorist group. He was actively attempting to recruit more soldiers into the terrorist cell based out of Kashmir. Pakistani authorities have also announced that upon the conclusion of their investigation, the Pakistani Taliban were discovered to have conducted the bombing attack in Islamabad. The main person responsible for the attack was identified as Usman alias Qari, resident of the Nangahar province in eastern Afghanistan. Trilateral tensions in the region have significantly risen since last week’s attacks with all three countries bolstering public narrative and threatening direct military action against each other.
Impact: The recent wave of terrorist attacks across India and Pakistan has significantly strained the already fragile ceasefire between the two countries. Afghanistan’s involvement through the Pakistani Taliban only adds a layer of complexity between the security frail region and diminishes the peace efforts from Turkey and Qatar which are working to secure a comprehensive peace agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan after their deadly border clashes last month. Terrorist and separatist groups are intensifying their activities vying for control and incenting armed confrontations in security sensitive regions such as the Pakistani – Afghan border, the provinces of Kashmir and Balochistan and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan. Despite India’s military superiority, Pakistan currently holds the advantage arriving on the back of expanded support from the US. India has been isolated on the international stage in the past couple of months, entering a trade feud with the US and continuing to pursue a multi – layered foreign policy towards China. Afghanistan’s position is relevant as a proxy force in the potential conflict in the future, since the country pivoted more towards restating relations with India and taking a more aggressive stance towards Pakistan. All – out war in the immediate future is highly unlikely, however, the region remains extremely unstable with constant skirmishes and confrontations across various provinces while the unchecked terrorist and militant groups are only incentivizing more instability and an even higher degree of adversarial stances from all three countries.