Description: Cambodia has started the evacuation of the civilian population near the disputed border regions where recently renewed confrontations with the Thai military have been reported. More than 250 families were evacuated approximately 30 kilometers inland to a Budhist temple from the Prey Chan village in the Banteay Meanchey province in Cambodia. Both countries have exchanged culpability for the violations of the US – brokered ceasefire last month with Thailand’s Prime Minister, Anutin Charnvirakul stating that his country was suspending the implementation of the agreement until serious efforts were made on the Cambodian side to uphold the agreed terms, such as the demining of the disputed regions across the 800km border. Cambodia’s Prime Minister, Hun Manet, stated that Thai soldiers fired on civilians in Prey Chan, unprovoked, killing one and seriously wounding three others while also stating that Cambodia remained committed towards upholding the ceasefire agreement. Thailand was also reported to have dispatched tanks across several border regions following the latest escalation. The Thai King is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on 14 Nov, when he is expected to discuss the latest escalation with Cambodia.
Impact: Cambodia’s preemptive evacuations of civilians across the border regions indicates that an imminent confrontation is to be expected as Thailand has already resorted towards renewed military buildup across the border regions. The escalating rhetoric on both sides demonstrates the political inconsistency and the diplomatic fragility of the ceasefire which was imposed on both countries by the US by means of trade and economic coercion and conditioning. The essential parts of the dispute are yet to be addressed by any significant stakeholders in the bilateral dispute which can only be achieved through concrete measures and steps taken from the guarantors and mediators such as Malaysia, the US and to some extent China. Thailand’s King is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, which would most certainly have an impact on Thailand’s immediate steps regarding the most recent escalation and would show China’s conflict resolution and power brokerage capital in the region. Currently, neither country seems keen on defusing the tensions and deflating their hostile public narrative which coupled with the rapid armed escalation indicates an immediate direct confrontation. China’s background role in the conflict could prove to be a deciding factor under the present constellation of relations since the official state visit from Thailand’s King could soften the country’s approach towards the renewed escalation, considering that China has curated closer strategic ties to Cambodia and has more regional diplomatic appeal than the US.