Description: Thailand’s government has stated that all provisions from the US – brokered ceasefire agreement with Cambodia were put on halt after four Thai soldiers were injured in a mine blast in Thailand’s Sisaket province. Thailand’s Prime Minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, has ordered the military to dispatch tanks across the border with Cambodia and stated that hostilities towards Thailand’s national security haven’t decreased under the terms of the ceasefire agreement. Cambodia’s foreign ministry replied that Thai soldiers continued patrolling the areas which had remnants of past conflicts and there were no intentional actions undertaken on the Cambodian side in regard to the incident. Charnvirakul also stated that the planned release of the Cambodian prisoners was also put on hold until sincere commitments are made from the Cambodian side towards respecting and fulfilling the terms of the ceasefire agreement.
Impact: The mine explosion incident highlights the fragility of the brokered ceasefire agreement and further emphasizes the absence and necessity of obligatory terms and bilateral peace mechanisms which would ensure the continued cessation of hostilities between the two countries. US President Trump by means of conditioning both countries with favorable trade agreements forced the governments in Bangkok and Phnom Penh to formally adopt an evidently meaningless ceasefire agreement which fails to address historically nurtured issues and lacks practical mechanisms for disengagement and disarmament of the disputed border regions. Immediate escalation into renewed direct armed confrontation is not expected, however, with the combination of the increased nationalistic sentiment in Thailand and the lackluster security measures across the border regions, direct confrontation between the two countries could be expected in the mid to long – term period if the countries fail to reengage in resolving the dispute through diplomatic means.