Description: US President Donald Trump, while answering questions from reporters in the Oval Office, has publicly admitted that he gave authorization and mandate to the CIA to conduct in – country operations in Venezuela further escalating the bilateral tensions in the Caribbean. Only a day before, the US conducted another strike in international waters on a boat suspected of carrying drugs which increased the number of such operations to five and the number of eliminated individuals to 27. When confronted with a direct question on whether the CIA has the specific task of eliminating Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Trump refused to answer the question and claimed that the intelligence agency’s operations were focused on subverting drug trade and illegal immigration into the US. Pressure from the political opposition in exile also intensified with Maria Corrina Machado directly requesting assistance from the US and President Trump to remove Maduro from power and enforce the will of the Venezuelan people. In an interview with the CNN, Machado claimed that Maduro has used military repression to remain in power and discredited the democratic will of the Venezuelan people in the 2024 election. Recent reports also indicated that individuals close to the US President’s advisory circle were increasing their campaigning efforts to oust Maduro. As part of the most recent escalation of tensions, the US ceased backchannel talks with Maduro’s government and declared that the country was in a non-international armed conflict with drug cartels, while also accusing Maduro of having direct ties to the country’s most notorious cartels such as Tren de Aragua.
Impact: Trump’s admission of allowing and mandating the CIA to conduct covert activities inside Venezuela is a direct telegraphed message to Maduro and his regime regarding the level of outreach and operability of US military and intelligence capabilities. Currently there are major indicators that the US are laying the groundwork for a potential regime change in Venezuela, however, that potential scenario would create no stable conditions for a smooth transfer of power and would most probably create extremely unstable conditions in Venezuela, taking into account Maduro’s close ties to the military and the influence on domestic security situation from the drug cartels. Trump’s acknowledgement of the CIA’s presence and activities in Venezuela is currently two dimensional and both purposes are pressure on Maduro to concede power or at least decentralize it in some form. The first reason would be to exert the maximum level of pressure on Maduro to force him to all US – requested concessions through backchannel talks, such as untattered access to the country’s oil and gold reserves, effectively drawing Venezuela by force into the US orbit of influence and away from China, Russia and Iran. The second reason would be to embolden the domestic oppositional mobilization which is legitimized through the election in 2024 in order to incite domestic unrest and destabilization of the country which would ultimately force Maduro out of power. Regime change would be a shortsighted and counterproductive strategy unless it’s portrayed as a domestic crisis, something which the US is apparently pursuing. Tensions would continue to rise in the upcoming period, with the potential for a political crisis exponentially rising.