Description: Malaysia’s Foreign Minister, Mohamed Hasan has stated that Thailand and Cambodia are expected to conclude a peace agreement under US supervision during this month’s ASEAN Summit. Hasan also elaborated that US and Malaysian diplomats were involved in mediating backchannel negotiations between Thailand and Cambodia in recent months and both countries have shown preparedness and political will to conclude their century – old border dispute. The US, Malaysia and China were integral in concluding the ceasefire in Jul which halted the worst armed hostilities between the two neighboring countries in decades. No official response from the White House was solicitated, however, Thailand has reportedly outlined four demands in order to accept a potential peace agreement. The demands included the complete removal of heavy weapons from the border, clearance of all land mines across the border, bilateral cooperation to hamper organized and cross – border criminal activities and joint management of sensitive border zones to avoid further conflicts. Cambodia hasn’t officially responded to the peace proposal nor to Thailand’s demands.
Impact: The ASEAN Summit would probably be crowned by another diplomatic achievement from the US President as backchannel efforts in the previous months resulted in reconciling the adversarial southeast Asian neighbors. Trump’s participation and presence in the ASEAN Summit would be solely contingent on previously received guarantees that a peace agreement has been reached between Cambodia and Thailand. Malaysia’s preemptive announcement of the negotiations and the potential for concluding the so – called Kuala Lumpur Accord are meant to exert further diplomatic pressure arriving from the public orbit of influence on all involved stakeholders including the US. China’s exclusion from the peace initiative indicates that the US has been investing substantial diplomatic capital in mediating the backchannel talks in the past couple of months and its involvement is central to achieving a terminal solution to the bilateral border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. The US had also previously approved an aid package to support Cambodia’s demining operations which in light of recent cuts in aid programs also represents a move aimed at supporting the peace process and is complementary to the US diplomatic efforts. The Kuala Lumpur Accord stands a solid chance of becoming reality, however, the agreement is strongly contingent on the result of the backchannel negotiations which are rarely publicly reported.