Description: After the intense armed border clashes over the weekend, both Afghanistan and Pakistan seemed reluctant to continue fighting, however, the largest border crossings, Torkham and Chaman remained closed, leaving many people stranded on both sides of the border. The clashes, which were prompted by the intensified terrorist and militant activities of the Tahreek i Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or the Pakistani Taliban, have doused down as the fragile ceasefire presently holds. The conflict was abruptly addressed by the US President Donald Trump while he was flying towards Egypt to attend the Gaza summit, as he stated that he would address the war once the situation in the Middle East is concluded. Afghanistan has announced it wouldn’t launch further attacks into Pakistan, while Pakistan claimed that it bolstered border security and increased military preparedness across the Derand line.
Impact: The persisting border closure coupled with Pakistan’s intensified military preparedness represent a position of a stalemate which is constantly under threat of reigniting into armed confrontations. The large number of militant and terrorist groups operating across the shared border between Afghanistan and Pakistan elevate the risk of renewed fighting. Pakistan’s constant problems with militant and terrorist organizations without conceptualizing an accurate and cohesive counterterrorism strategy are expected to persist. The current situation would remain unchanged in the upcoming period with high potential for reignition of the armed confrontations, primarily by Pakistan which would be obliged to intervene in case terrorist and militant attacks continue. The conflict risks putting Pakistan and Afghanistan, former allies, on a path towards perpetual cross – border war if mutual concerns are not adequately addressed by both countries.