Description: After intense ground and aerial skirmishes, Myanmar’s military has claimed that it successfully captured the strategically important town of Kyaukme, after being under the control of the rebel forces alliance for over a year. The town represents a key transport and trade route which connects Shan State to China previously being controlled by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). TNLA is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance which also includes the National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Arakan Army. The Alliance is frailly connected to the People’s Defense Forces (PDF), the pro – democratic resistance force, also an adversary of Myanmar’s military junta leadership. The capture of Kyaukme is also vital to the military’s ambitions to legitimize itself as the major governing entity in the war-torn country through the elections scheduled to take place on 28 Dec.
Impact: Myanmar’s military junta government is slowly progressing towards consolidating enough territorial control to be able to establish a system resembling a government and reinforce its rule through the elections. Rebel organizations such as the TNLA, MNDAA, the Arkan Army or the People’s Defense Forces are still experiencing difficulties in cohesively opposing the military as their fractured alliance currently represents no serious military obstacle to Myanmar’s junta. Skirmishes throughout the past couple of months have led to mixed results as organizations such as the Arakan Army managed to successfully repel the junta in several direct conflicts in the Rakhine state. The civil war would continue in the mid-to-long term as neither the military junta nor the fractured alliances between the rebels groups could militarily prevail in larger parts of the country. The military is expected to increase the pressure upon the rebel groups, potentially targeting the smaller and the weaker ones in order to indirectly dissuade the larger organizations from opposing the Dec elections.