Description: While addressing the UN General Assembly, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, reiterated his country’s non – nuclear ambitions stating that the enrichment was aimed at expanding the civilian nuclear capabilities to strengthen the country’s ailing energy problems. Pezeshkian’s pledges arrive after Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, renounced any possibilities of direct negotiations with the US in the upcoming period, claiming that the US has lost all credibility by exploiting the last round of negotiations to launch airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Negotiations with the US is one of the conditions outlined by the E3 group of countries in order for Iran to avoid the reimposition of the snapback sanctions mechanism for failing to uphold its obligations from the 2015 JCPOA. Iran meanwhile has devised closer nuclear cooperation with Russia, as Rosatom’s Director General, Alexei Likhachev and Iran’s Vice – President, Mohammad Eslami, signed a memorandum of understanding in Moscow, promising to develop more civilian nuclear plants in the country. Iran was also reportedly awaiting the delivery of MiG – 29 and Sukhoi Su – 35 fighter jets from Russia in order to replenish its air defenses and strengthen deterrence. The deadline for the reimposition of the snapback sanctions expires on 27 Sep, unless the UN Security Council doesn’t intervene with some sort of an extension.
Impact: Iran’s military buildup coupled with conflicting statements from high level officials such as Pezeshkian and Khamenei indicates the country would remain reluctant to completely abandon nuclear enrichment efforts. The imposition of the snapback sanctions seems highly probable which would in turn cause an even worse economic situation which could eventually lead towards civil unrest. UN’s Security Council could intervene in the meantime by voting on some sort of an extension of the sanctions deadline in order to avoid escalating tensions between Iran, the US and Israel. Iran would ultimately have to agree to some sort of initial concessions in order not to become even more isolated on the international stage and subjected to an even worse economic pressure through the sanctions. The chances of renewed armed confrontation currently remain low, however, in case the snapback mechanism is expediently adopted, Iran would likely respond with further military buildup and circumvention of the sanctions, primarily by selling its oil to Russia and China and strengthening strategic ties with both countries.