Description: South Sudan’s First Vice – President, Riek Machar, was charged with murder and treason and is now awaiting trial while being confined in house arrest since Mar. The charges arrived as a result of the political and military upheaval in the country which reflected wider divisions between Machar loyalists, such as the SPLM – IO, and political elements loyal to President Salva Kiir. The White Army Militia, loyal to Machar has escalated attacks on South Sudan’s national army and reportedly devised closer connections to another militant group called the National Salvation Front (NAS) which has been leading an anti – government rebellion since 2018. The peace agreement which concluded the devastating civil war in South Sudan has repeatedly failed to materialize a stable political establishment in the country fueled with inter-ethnic divisions. Militant groups in the country as well as South Sudan’s military have been accused of kidnapping humanitarian workers for ransom as well as looting aid outposts in order to control the flow of aid in the country. The last mediated negotiations held in Kenya in 2024 stipulated that South Sudan would hold general elections in 2026 after repeatedly postponing them due to lack of political consensus.
Impact: The charges against Machar, stemming from months of political and military confrontation with President Salva Kiir could severely impact the country’s chances of unlocking its oil driven economic potential and plunge it on the track towards renewed civil war. President Kiir through political persecution is attempting to subvert the rival political and militant groups in the country in order to position himself or his potential successor as the leading candidate for the upcoming presidential elections. Military confrontations between the country’s army and the White Army Milita could substantially escalate in the upcoming period, especially after information emerged regarding the organizational convergence between the White Army Militia and the National Salvation Front. Humanitarian efforts in the country have been severely crippled with the increase in kidnappings of humanitarian workers as international organizations such as the UN downsizes their financial capacities. The situation is expected to further deteriorate and potentially merge within the general state of regional instability caused by the civil war in Sudan, renewed tensions in Ethiopia and the ongoing conflict in the DRC.