Description: Brazil’s Supreme Court has sentenced and convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years and three months in prison after finding him guilty of orchestrating a coup attempt in the fallout from the 2022 presidential elections. Bolsonaro was charged and convicted on the grounds of being a member of a criminal organization and attempted violent abolition of Brazil’s democratic rule of law. The indictment draw sharp criticism from US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio who stated that the US would undertake a proportionate action towards Brazil’s incumbent government, which has staged a theatrical trial and impeded the country’s democracy. The US has already imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports and sanctioned individuals such as Supreme Court judge Alexandre Moraes. Bolsonaro is expected to start serving his sentence under house arrest as his defense lawyers have announced they were already preparing an appeal to the Supreme Court’s decision.
Impact: Bolsonaro’s conviction drew polarized reaction from Brazil’s civil society and its threatening wider political divisions in Parliament where the former President’s conservative party holds the majority. Bolsonaro was previously banned from politics by an election committee which raises the issue of his successor who would challenge President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva in the next presidential elections, scheduled to take place in 2026. Diplomatic pressure from the US further aggravates the situation since the Trump administration has proven its readiness to weaponize tariffs and even resort to military action. Bolsonaro’s conservative party is consistently pushing for amnesty in Brazil’s Parliament and is in a position to condition support in return for gaining concessions regarding the former President’s conviction. Immediate instability isn’t expected, however, political tensions and the threat level of civil unrest in the country would gradually rise as the next presidential elections are closing in.