Description: The Ethiopian government has announced its plans to inaugurate the long-awaited mega dam project called the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The project, which has been under heavy criticism from Egypt and Sudan, is expected to cost around $5 billion and store around 64 billion cubic meters of water, capable of powering the entire 130 million nation with consistent energy supply. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, introduced the project as Ethiopia’s national restructuring on the global stage, as the country’s renewable energy capabilities would surmount its demand and Ethiopia would be able to outsource large amounts of its produced electricity to neighboring countries and even the Middle East. Sudan and Egypt have consistently raised concerns for Ethiopia’s exclusive access to the water flow in the Blue Nile River, as well as the country’s capability to use the dam as a weapon, considering the vast amount of storage capacities.
Impact: The mega dam project would most certainly solidify Abiy Ahmed’s leadership as Ethiopia’s Prime Minister and relax domestic tensions with rebel groups such as the Tigray’s People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), unifying the Ethiopian nation on a nationalist basis. On the foreign policy front, multilateral tensions would escalate, as the project hasn’t been approved by neighboring Sudan and Egypt, with Egypt continuing to pursue negotiations to legally bind Ethiopia and constrain their strategic advantage with the GERD project. Sudan which is facing further territorial divisions caused by the civil war and having two parallel governments, is not likely to competently oppose the project, however, in the long – term Sudan’s rebel groups or even its national armed forces could conduct ground insurgencies into Ethiopia if the projected trilateral talks fail to deliver.