Description: Bosnia’s Election Commission, has announced early presidential elections to be held on 28 Nov in the autonomous Serb Republic, despite opposition from the country’s Parliament and its former separatist leader, Milorad Dodik. Dodik was stripped of the presidency, sentenced to one-year jailtime and banned from political activities for six years by the country’s Constitutional Court for defying orders issued by the Office of the High Representative (OHR). Dodik last week pushed a vote in the Serb Republic’s Parliament to oust and delegitimize the role of the OHR in the country while also calling for votes to shore up support for its political party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats. The Parliament refused to recognize Dodik’s verdict, while also not recognizing the OHR as the ultimate interpreter of the Dayton peace accords and has prohibited political campaigning while banning early elections. Dodik’s government reshuffle caused the Serb Republic’s Prime Minister, Radovan Viskovic to submit his resignation and pursue a wider coalition of political parties with more decision – making power, until the ultimate goal is reached, which according to Viskovic, was the secession of the Serb Republic from the federation of Bosnia and Hercegovina.
Impact: Bosnia’s political crisis enters a phase of turmoil reminiscent of the separatist sentiments which encircled the war in the country from 1992 to 1995. The confliction between the Serb Republic’s Parliament, the country’s former President and the country’s Prime Minister would cause further internal divisions while separatist sentiments dominate the narrative in the country. The Parliament has seemingly sequestered itself from both Dodik and influence from the OHR with the prohibition for early elections, however, the formation of a wider political coalition initiated by Radovan Viskovic could intensify the political instability in the country. Serbia’s ongoing political crisis could also further inflame separatist sentiments in the Serb Republic, as Serbian President Vucic has openly challenged the ruling by the Constitutional Court and supported Dodik’s position. The combining crises in the neighboring countries could morph into a larger wave of political instability in the mid-to-long-term period, riding on nationalist and separatist sentiments, as both Vucic and Dodik are facing domestic pressure to step down.