Description: Ethiopians in the northern Tigray region are witnessing another scenario over a potential war in the Tigray since tensions between the federal government, the Tigray’s People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara militias and Eritrea have severely escalated in the past couple of months. The TPLF’s resurgence arrives over indications that Eritrea might be supporting the militia rebel group in order to subdue the government of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed. Tensions initially sparked in Mar, where TPLF’s leader Debretsion Gebremichael clashed with the Tigray mayor appointed by Abiy Ahmed, Getachew Reda, over the implementation of the disarmament clause outlined in the Praetoria peace agreement signed between Ethiopia and the TPLF in 2022. The TPLF then staged an armed offensive, ousting Reda and installing its own structure in the capital of the north, Mekelle. Ethiopia then accused Eritrea of considerably supporting the TPLF through logistical means and military equipment, while bilateral tensions between the countries surged by Ethiopia’s introduction of the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Nile River in Jul. Military buildup across the border has been consistent with previous conflicts as well as escalation in political narrative between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Impact: The armed operations conducted by the TPLF in Mar to oust the Tigray mayor appointed by the Ethiopian federal government coupled with the introduction of the Grand Renaissance Dam in Jul, demonstrate a gradual escalation from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his government mostly aimed at Eritrea as well as the TPLF. The fragile Praetoria agreement signed in 2022 is no credible reassurance that both countries as well as the plethora of armed groups in rebellion would resort to negotiations and dialogue on key differences. The introduction of the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile by Ethiopia also angered other African countries dependent on the vast river water supply such as Egypt and Sudan which contingent on the degree of escalation could also elevate adversarial narrative towards Ethiopia. Currently there are no immediate threats of conflict eruption as inflammatory actions have so far been undertaken by the Ethiopian federal government with no conclusive response from Eritrea. The problem with the TPLF, however, represents a credible threat which could escalate towards the war, reminiscent of the conflict in 2020.