Description: The Arakan Army (AA) one of the more influential armed militant groups fighting the military junta in Myanmar’s civil war, has captured a strategic city in the state of Rakhine. The AA has so far experienced tactical and strategical difficulties in capturing key portions of land, crucial to outside state actors in the war such as China and India. The AA currently controls up to 14 out of the 17 towns in Rakhine State. The group’s conscriptions methods as well as the strategic repurposing of the Rohingya minority in the country which it once persecuted, position the AA favorably in achieving substantial military goals in regions such as Rakhine’s capital, Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, a key town for oil and gas pipelines, and a deep-sea port vital to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Impact: Recent operations conducted by Myanmar’s military junta in order to bolster territorial control ahead of the Dec elections, could be rapidly back scaled as rebel militant groups, key to regional powers such as China, India or even Bangladesh could be supported in overtaking a dominant role on the battlefronts. The constant fluctuations of military alliances and the multi – layered support that China exercises over several armed groups and their political wings in the war position China as the deciding factor in the eventual outcome of the war. The Arakan Army reportedly captured large swathes of territory in the western parts of the country controlling key regions rich in natural resources which position the militant group in the future hypothetical negotiations with the country’s military junta.