Description: The senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Yahya Rahim Safavi, has stated that the risk of reinstated conflict with Israel has been deemed as imminent. Safavi stated that Iran is enhancing its preparedness in expectation of renewed military aggression from Israel in light of new information from the country’s intelligence services. He also stated that no official arrangement exists at this point between Israel and Iran or Iran and the US, as the ceasefire has been unilaterally announced by the US after the 12 – day war. Safavi’s statements countered those by Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, who has repeatedly claimed that there was no imminent military risk from Israel or the US. The information arrives after Iran’s negotiations with the E3 last month and reinstitution of talks with the IAEA this month.
Impact: The current state of the unofficial trilateral ceasefire between Israel the US and Iran indicates no restitution of military aggression. The warning also emphasizes divisions and differences of opinion among Iran’s top leadership as conflicting statements from Araghchi and Safavi signal that Iran’s public warnings are currently only in the narrative of diplomatic posturing. The stalled negotiations with the E3 and the IAEA coupled with the growing domestic economic crisis and shortages in water supply signals that Iran would soon agree towards significant concessions regarding the state of the country’s nuclear program. The exclusion of guardrails around future diplomatic engagement, such as no guarantees from the US from renewed military intervention could dissuade Iran going forward in the negotiations and escalate the risk of war in the long term.