Description: While visiting Scotland and meeting UK’s Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, Trump expressed his displeasure from the lack of developments in the Russia – Ukraine ceasefire negotiations. The US President had previously set a ceasefire and peace deadline of 50 days and threatened to impose additional sanctions on Russia and 100% tariffs on countries trading and supporting Russia’s wartime economy. Addressing the media, Trump shortened the deadline from 50 to 10 or potentially 12 days for Russia and Ukraine to announce a ceasefire in order to stop the war which is in its third year. The announcement was positively received by Ukraine’s President Volodymir Zelenskyy and his Chief of Staff, Andriy Yermak as they both stated that Trump’s reduction of the 50-day deadline comes at a right time and sends a clear message to Russia. Russia’s Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, stated that Trump was rigorously playing a dangerous game of ultimatums and risked putting the US on a direct warpath with Russia.
Impact: Russia’s response to Trump’s tariff and sanctions threats indicates the country has adjusted its wartime economy to adapt towards constant escalations on trade and economic prohibitions and devised means of circumventing the sanctions. Russia’s public portrayal of economic resilience, however, is not supported by estimations on the country’s faltering economy, despite its capabilities of resisting the sanctions pressure. Russia wouldn’t risk engaging in negotiations under economic pressure from the US, while the new shortened deadline would only embolden Putin to enhance aggression as a show of force move, while facing additional economic and political pressure. The imposition of US sanctions is the only concrete measure Trump has left to persuade Russia to negotiate as his constant delays and extended deadlines indicate that other means of resolving the war have been exhausted in the past three years. Russia has shown no signs of constructive reengagement so far which most probably signals the US would have to resort towards imposing additional sanctions and tariffs on country’s engaged in economic collaboration with Russia. The move also threatens to negatively impact other major geopolitical situations such as the US – China trade talks and the situation with Iran’s nuclear program, as both countries are close Russian allies fueling the country’s wartime economy and providing Russia with direct and indirect military support.