Description: In the early hours on 24 Jul, border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia expediently transpired out of control as the countries exchanged artillery fire while several border skirmishes took place at four disputed border locations. Tensions reached their climax on Wednesday, when Thailand recalled their ambassador to Cambodia and expelled the Cambodian envoy from the country which was followed by recent incidents involving the explosion of land mines reportedly set by Cambodia alongside several locations on the 800-kilometer border. Military operations on both sides rapidly progressed, with Thailand deploying F – 16 fighter jets which targeted several military outposts within Cambodia, while Cambodia in return deployed BM – 21 rocket launchers which struck a gas station, a hospital and a development center in Thailand. So far, 12 to 16 casualties have been reported on the Thai side, with more than 40 thousand people being relocated through a buffer zone 50 kilometers away from the border regions. Cambodia reported 4 casualties and up to 4 thousand people being displaced due to the escalating armed confrontation. In the latest statements, Thailand has refused mediation efforts from foreign countries stating that negotiations could only begin after the armed confrontation is over. Cambodia pleaded to the UN, which is set to hold an emergency meeting of its Security Council behind closed doors on Friday.
Impact: The gradual escalation of military and political tensions between the two countries over the past three months led towards the inevitable armed confrontation. Cambodia’s leadership has publicly declared they incited Thailand’s political crisis through the phone call leak, which subsequently degraded the Thai government and created wide divisions within its ruling coalition. In conditions where Thailand is politically unstable, the country’s military, which is deeply imbedded in its political system, predominates over the decision-making process on the highest levels of government. Thailand’s refusal to mediation efforts and Cambodia’s insistence on international intervention position the two countries in a diametrically opposing directions which eventually leads towards protracted confrontation. The conflict is currently centralized over four disputed border regions and its threatening of expanding into a full-scale war if expedient diplomatic action is not undertaken. China, as the global power with the largest regional diplomatic and political capital, could potentially assert itself in mediating de-escalation which would further expand the country’s clout of influence.