Description: The recent confrontation between Russia and Azerbaijan has managed to loosen Russia’s grip on the Caucasus region, enabling global and regional forces to fill the power vacuum. Armenia and Azerbaijan have independently reengaged diplomatically over the conclusion of the informal ceasefire announced after the 44 – day war in 2020 which was mediated by Russia. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Nikol Pashinyan met in Abu Dhabi on 10 Jul, where they directly discussed the enforcement of the agreed conditions of the ceasefire and reportedly the administrative rule of the Zangezur Corridor, which connects Azerbaijan and Turkey via Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave passing through south Armenia. The corridor is an important regional and global trade route which connects several Asian countries such as China, India and Iran through ground routes with Turkey and Europe. US President Donald Trump also commented on the recent bilateral developments regarding Armenia and Azerbaijan and stated that they were reportedly close towards signing a definitive peace agreement resolving the territorial disputes.
Impact: Regional power dynamics in the Caucasus are dramatically shifting in favor of Turkey, the US and are causing the diminishing of Russian and Chinese influence in the region. The bilateral dispute between Azerbaijan and Russia enabled the strategic distancing from Baku and Yerevan to be exploited mostly by Turkey, which has been pushing for conclusion of the peace agreement following Pashinyan’s meeting with Erdogan last month. The two former Soviet republics are actively disengaging from Russia’s orbit of influence and demonstrating independent signs of strategic orientation, shifting their priorities towards closer ties with Turkey and the US. Key trade routes such as the Zangezur Corridor and Russia’s North – South Corridor, connecting it to China, Iran and India are undergoing severe changes with other state actors such as Turkey, actively enforcing soft power influence in the region. Armenia and Azerbaijan’s strategic reorientation could have significant implications in the war in Ukraine and the global economy impacted by the US tariff war, by allowing the US and Turkey access and increased influence over key trade routes in the Caucasus.