Description: Leaked initial assessments from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) pertaining to Operation Midnight Hammer stated that Iranian nuclear enrichment sites were severely damaged but far away from being destroyed. The report was initially published by CNN and the New York Times and heavily disputed the claims coming from the White House, which stated that the sites were obliterated by the 14 GBU – 57A MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) bombs launched on 21 Jun. The assessment was heavily criticized by the entire Trump administration which stated that the report was released to diminish the effects of an extremely successful military mission and had no actual ground which was supported by evidence. Satellite imagery supported the claim from the leaked assessment, as days prior to the US strikes heavy equipment and vehicles were pinpointed to have worked on either reinforcing the facilities or transporting the nuclear centrifuges alongside Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium to an undisclosed location. The IAEA’s statements also supported the fact that after the US bombing mission, no traces of any radioactive leakage even in the slightest form was noted which was highly suspicious and worked towards reinforcing the relocation argument. Trump’s DNI (Director of National Intelligence), Tulsi Gabbard, in last month’s congressional hearing outlined the official position of the US intelligence community that Iran was enriching uranium highly above the requirements for civilian usage of nuclear power but hasn’t been working towards weaponization of its nuclear program. The announced ceasefire between Israel and Iran despite early violations from both sides is still in its initial stages while reports indicated that US Special envoy Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were already engaged in negotiations.
Impact: Trump has continuously assaulted his administration’s intelligence reports and disregarded their assessments regarding Iran’s disputed nuclear program. Converging reports from several sources have supported the assessment that Iran has either relocated their uranium enriched stockpile and centrifuges or reinforced the sites enough in order to prevent complete devastation of the entire program. Iran has so far publicly stated that several other covert nuclear enrichment sites were built, and its nuclear program would continue unabated. The entire situation significantly impacts the fragile ceasefire and the ongoing diplomatic efforts which have been restarted. In case Operation Midnight Hammer was unsuccessful, the entire interventionist campaign by Israel and the US would have been ineffective and of negative strategic value. Iran’s movements and behavior should be closely monitored in the upcoming period while further intelligence assessments on the nuclear enrichment sites would disclose the objective impact of Operation Midnight Hammer, influencing the future directions of the crisis and dictating the navigation of decisions from the three countries involved in the war.