Description: In the late hours of 21 Jun, the US Air Force using up to seven B – 2 Spirit stealth bombers and a variety of fighter jets attacked three nuclear enrichment sites in Iran targeting the regime’s disputed weaponization of their nuclear program using MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) bombs or bunker busters. The operation, codenamed Midnight Hammer, was conducted on the heavily fortified subterranean facility in Fordow, and the facilities in Esfahan and Natanz. US President Trump addressed the public stating the attacks have completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites and caused substantial damage to the deeply entrenched Fordow facility, permanently crippling Iran’s nuclear program. Conflicting reports also emerged claiming that Iran has relocated its enrichment capacities from the three locations and the damage to the sites was limited and repairable. The attacks marked the most significant escalation in the war between Israel and Iran, with the US now being directly involved through aerial operations. Mixed reactions were gathered across the international scene personified through the heated discussions held in the emergency UN Security Council on 22 Jun. The US strikes happened only two days after Trump announced that he would allow Iran a chance to approach negotiations once again, which happened in Geneva on 20 Jun where foreign leaders from Germany, the UK and France met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. After the negotiations, no significant progress was announced as both sides held their ground, with the E3 pressuring Iran to completely abandon enrichment ambitions while Iran categorically refusing to do so. Iran has vowed to retaliate although the country’s options remain severely limited having its proxy groups and almost the entire high – level military echelon eliminated by Israeli strikes. Iran’s retaliatory options are severely limited, their proxy groups are in hiding and have limited operational presence in the neighboring countries, although verified threats of activating terrorist sleeper cells on US territory and its allies have caused elevated level of security preparedness. Iran’s most significant threat could be the closing of the Strait of Hormuz which is a key maritime trade chokepoint as almost 20% of the global oil seaborne trade passes through the Strait.
Impact: The crisis in the Middle East expands its outreach and dimensions through the direct involvement by the US. Diplomatic efforts at this stage are completely depleted and unsustainable as the US and Iran are now effectively in a war against each other, although, warnings of even higher levels of escalation in the attacks by the US might prompt the Iranians to succumb to the pressure at some point in time. No concrete resolutions regarding the war have been so far conceptualized, as regime change or the complete abandonment of Iran’s nuclear program would signify the collapse of the ruling religious class in Iran, both governmentally and politically, which would require a ground invasion considering the fragmented state of Iran’s political and military opposition and subsequently prompt the indefinite prolongation of another perpetual war in the Middle East. Trump’s foreign policy of militarily conditioned negotiations could potentially bring Iran to the negotiating table in the mid – term considering the country’s precarious position on all fronts and the lack of direct military support from their allies such as Russia and China. Israel would continue to attack critical infrastructure, enrichment sites and target Iran’s military leadership in the upcoming period, effectively doubling down and exploiting the US involvement and support in the war. Europe’s diplomatic efforts have once again shown their ineffectiveness and shortsightedness as the E3’s efforts were a stark reiteration of US demands offering no other alternatives. The US has seemingly conducted a tactical intervention with the attacks on 21 Jun, however, continued involvement has also standing ground as a measure, since Trump has stayed faithful to his diplomacy through force policies. The war would continue in the indefinite period of time with constant escalatory turbulations and fluctuations, leaving diplomacy little to no space for maneuver.