Description: US President Donald Trump has casted a wide shadow over the outcome of the war between Israel and Iran by giving himself and all other parties involved a two-week window to jumpstart diplomatic efforts once again. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated in a public announcement that US Special envoy Steven Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have been in constant communication ever since the start of the war on 13 Jun and were attempting to come closer to a diplomatic compromise. High – level European diplomats from the E3 group of countries, France, the UK and Germany are expected to meet Araghchi in Geneva on 20 Jun to discuss de-escalation while the war continues. Iran has reportedly struck a hospital in Israel, leaving more than 70 people injured while Israel conducted bombing runs over the inactive nuclear plant in Arak and continued attacks on the Natanz facility, causing further infrastructural damage, crippling the enrichment facility. The initiative comes after days of growing tensions which outlined speculations over a potential US military intervention in the crucial subterranean Fordow nuclear site using US bunker buster bombs and even tactical nuclear weapons ordnance.
Impact: Trump continues to maintain a high degree of suspense through constant shifts in narrative regarding potential resolutions of the crisis in the Middle East. The short two – week diplomatic window would require precise and expedient negotiations between all parties involved in order to avert a potentially inevitable prolonged war and regional crisis in the Middle East with global implications. Europe’s assertion as a mediator and a power broker between the US and Iran could be highly relevant depending on the political and diplomatic rapprochement from the E3. Israel’s position hasn’t changed or modified as Netanyahu continued to conduct airstrikes which currently leaves the country without a concrete result or strategic conclusion of their decision to instigate the war with Iran. Other regional and global stakeholders such as the Gulf states, Russia, China, Pakistan and India are most probably involved in enforcing a diplomatic resolution considering the irreversible repercussions from a potential perpetual war. The outcome of the two – weeks window would be determined through the ability of the US to pressure Israel in temporarily halting operations in order to bring Iran firmly onto the negotiating table. Europe’s involvement as a direct mediator and backchannel efforts from other countries are also contributing towards conceptualization of a diplomatic framework which could significantly influence negotiations in the upcoming period. The potential for a US strike still looms over the crisis in case the diplomatic initiative brings no concrete results.