Description: Entering the sixth day of the Israel – Iran war, US President Donald Trump has erratically shifted his intents in public in the past 24 hours, leaning towards supporting Israel’s military campaign against Iran’s nuclear facilities, as both countries continued exchanging aerial assaults. Previously, the American President stated that US military assets in the region were exclusively for defensive use which was later proven to be wrong as direct links were made where US tanker carriers have supported Israeli aviation in mid – air fueling while they continued conducting bombing runs on crucial Iranian targets. Trump hurryingly left the G7 Summit where he advised the press that much larger things than a ceasefire were developing as he took off in a prescheduled National Security meeting. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has in the meantime repeatedly speculated around Israel’s ultimate goal in the war flirting between completely overturning the rule of the incumbent Islamic government and solely disabling Iran’s nuclear program in its entire existence. US military assets were tracked flocking around bases in the Middle East as the Nimitz Strike Group arrived in the Indian Ocean on Tuesday, marking a significant shift in the US posturing that went from diplomacy towards brazen threats of war.
Impact: The war is starting to shape change the entire region with consistent inaccurate transforming narratives that fuel insecurity, uncertainty and prolongation of the hostilities. Considering the depleted state of Iran’s proxy groups coupled with the current inaction from its staunchest allies such as China and Russia, Iran might succumb to the pressure imposed by the US and reapproach diplomatic resolutions facing military annihilation. Potential US direct involvement might incentivize other countries to strengthen and concretize support for Iran which most certainly would lead towards expanding the dimension of the war on a regional level with unspecified longevity or timeframe. Trump might also be staying confident in his maximum pressure diplomatic methods and use the current escalation of narrative and Israel’s attacks to impose the ultimate level of pressure on the Iranian regime in order to push them towards complete capitulation of their nuclear ambitions. The probability of a direct US military intervention is constantly fluid, as Trump’s political backing is severely split between the ones wanting to avoid another 20 – year long US military involvement in the Middle East, and the ones demanding decisive action aimed at striking the final blows to the Iranian regime. Currently every scenario signals an inevitable US intervention if the Iranian regime doesn’t suddenly back scale its aggressive defensive stance and agree towards reinstituting the nuclear talks. Trump could also be engaging into a high – risk negotiating strategy, aiming at pushing the Iranian regime into submission through consistent mulitary buildup and threats of US direct intervention while expecting concrete results from backchannel communication through mediators and other influential actors involved in the war.