Erdogan’s Victory and the Immediate Impact on Europe’s Geopolitical Stability

Erdogan’s resounding victory solidifies Turkey’s pivotal role as a key regional actor, leveraging geopolitical instability to elevate its position on the international arena.

The Cold War frontline sentry of NATO on the borders of the former Soviet Union, Turkiye found itself in the midst of the geopolitical turbulences related to the current multidimensional conflict in Ukraine. The revitalized military confrontation among global powers, the US-China strategic rivalry, the realignment of coalitions particularly in the MENA region and Indo-Pacific, also not forgetting the growing global economic crisis, represent the indicators of the changing world order, where Turkiye plays a historically important regional role, having close political, economic and societal connections with former Soviet satellite states, including the states on the European continent.

The questioning of Turkiye’s historical role as a strong Western ally has intensified since the failed coup attempt in 2016 and the country’s shift towards a highly personalized presidential system.^[1] Recent foreign policy actions have further isolated Turkiye within the region and strained its relationships with both the EU and US. The deterioration of Turkish democracy^[2]has further exacerbated these conflicts of interests. With the Turkish Presidential elections in the rearview mirror and despite the recent devastating earthquake coupled up with the economic hardships that Turkiye has been experiencing for a longer period,^[3]not forgetting the high unemployment rates of Turkish youth,^[4] the county nevertheless seems to be neatly positioned to reassert itself as a key regional actor in the following years, utilizing the geopolitical instability to promote itself higher on the international arena.